Yes, it’s high time to start planning to shrink human footprint in the world by reducing global population. It's not just bringing the population growth rate down but total population in a more systematic manner, ideally with least possible disruption in our societies and in the Government. The issue is critically important to address many other issues including man-made climate change, wealth and income inequality, human migration and refugee crisis. These issues themselves are inter-connected.
Humans first reached the 1 billion mark around 1800, a doubling time of about 300 years; 2 billion in 1927, a doubling time of 127 years; and 4 billion in 1974, a doubling time of 47 years. We can clearly understand that doubling time is increasingly getting shorter. World population crossed the 7 billion mark around October 31, 2011. Current World population is around 8 billion. 1 in 8 people in the world today don’t have enough to eat. World population is expected to reach around 9.7 billion by 2050 and then peak around 11 billion by 2100. It’s always a challenge for planners to satisfy the basic needs for food, shelter, clothes, energy, and other items for ever increasing number of people.
Many times various lobby groups, which include Non-Profit or Non-Governmental organizations refuse to accept ecological limitations of our planet. Religion does play its role here by promoting the idea that mere mortal humans are too insignificant to damage Mother Nature and God’s creation. We also know that aspiration of growing number of people to have a western life style is putting more pressure on the planet in almost every front, starting from more meat and dairy based diet, which need more land, water and other resources, to growing energy consumption, which is mostly met by fossil fuel.
World Watch Institute estimated that our planet has just 1.9 hectares of land per person for satisfying almost all its basic needs and also take care of the waste it generates. That means growing food and clothes, supplying energy, and absorbing the waste we generate from that size of land. An average American uses about 9.7 hectares. This indicates that our planet can support only about 1.5 billion people with a lifestyle of an average American.
The situation becomes little more complicated if we start calculating various basic needs that a person requires. One good example would be water. Biologically a person needs about 1 gallon (about 3.8 Lt) of water per day. In 2010, USA used 355 billion gallons of freshwater, i.e. over 1,000 gallons (4,000 liters) per person per day. Half was used to generate electricity, one-third for irrigation, and roughly one-tenth for household use: flushing toilets, taking bath, washing clothes and dishes, and watering lawns. If 7.5 billion people consumed water at that American level, world usage would top 10,000 cubic kilometers per year. Total world supply – freshwater lakes and rivers – is about 91,000 cubic kilometers. Here keep in mind that about 2.1 billion people in the world don’t have enough water to drink and more than twice as many lack safe sanitation, as per World Health Organization.
By now we, or at many concerned scientists and other policy experts, became aware of growing crisis of man-made climate change; growing danger to humanity due to mass extinction of various living organisms from plants to insects, birds, and other animals; increasingly acidic and polluted oceans and seas. This is not of mere academic interest but has very close relation to our food supply and farming crisis as rapidly declining bee population indicates. Whatever we may do or plan to do, we simply cannot supply enough food, water, energy, and other basic necessities for ever growing number of people. Few probable solutions to feed more than 8 billion people demands some drastic changes in our life style and food habit might not be so acceptable for many people, mainly the affluent ones in developed countries like the U.S. One such prescription to feed growing number of people is based on relying more on plant based diet and less on meat and dairy. An average American eats about 638 percent more red meat, 145 percent more dairy, 234 percent more poultry, 268 percent more eggs, while consuming substantially less whole grain, legumes, fruits and vegetables to maintain a nutritionally sound and sustainably produced planet-wide diet.
Currently we treat farm land and other natural resources like forest and marsh land, lakes etc. as land banks for future expansion of real estate and industrial growth. Many of us either don’t know or conveniently forget that only about nine countries in this whole world are actually self-sufficient in food. Despite of economic prosperity and technological advancement the only European country that is self-sufficient in food is France. Those nice looking cows in lush green meadows in Switzerland mostly rely on imported grains and fodder.
Many policy makers in our local communities, or the state, or even the country can think that they can outsource, arguably, the most labour intensive and at the same time least remunerative occupation of farming to some poorer countries and then buy food if they have money. They forget that the buck must stop somewhere and it’s not always the poorer countries in the developing world. Closing local family owned farms, significantly high suicide rate of farmers, mainly in countries that actually grow its own food, is a well-documented phenomenon. It’s present in rich developed countries like the U.S., which has higher rate of farmers suicide than war veterans, and France. A developing country like India, which still has more than half of its population depend on agriculture, is fast earning the dubious title of “farmer suicide capital of the world”.
This situation is not much sustainable, particularly with growing number of people to feed. It’s also shown that rising food price is one of the major reasons for socio-political instability and a major reason for Arab spring. That’s a rather constant theme in human history for social unrest.
The problem becomes more intense as income inequality (as captured by the Absolute Gini) is fast growing in almost every country since mid-1970s. It roughly correlates with globalization along with our shrinking non-renewable resources for future generations to grow or even to sustain itself. Pre-globalization income inequality between developed and developing countries is declining though. It indicates few other facts like export of poverty from part of those developing nations to a large section of developed world. Now, an American or a British poor resembles more like their colleagues in India and China while the rich people in these countries are also becoming more similar at a time when income gap between a rich and a poor person within almost every country including in the U.S. is growing.
That growing income and wealth inequality is again affecting the way our political system and big corporations work. Despite of fully knowing the facts about man-made climate change, major players in fossil fuel industries like Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil got away after misleading general public, national Governments, and many of its own shareholders. Proposed energy policies show demand rising for natural gas but slowing for oil and coal.
Source: TIME, Jan. 27, 2020.
We need to remember that natural gas is also emits greenhouse gases when
burned. Only the extent is less that oil and coal but significantly higher than
renewable energy sources like solar and wind power. If countries meet the
Paris
climate agreement's reasonably bold targets, demand for all fossil fuels would
decline and all the remaining fossil fuel sources must remain below ground.
Despite of its huge influence, many of the fossil fuel companies are now facing a grim reality due to dwindling long term supply of its main revenue sources (i.e. fossil fuel itself); and duet to public awareness and resulting frustration, anger, and political backlash in many countries due to worsening climate crisis that even concerned scientists and most aggressive model of climate change failed to perceive. That frustration is more in western democracies that still have productive media, freedom of speech, and where people used to enjoy relatively less polluted lives with relatively less natural calamities. Many Western democracies, certainly the U.S. are increasingly facing many climate change induced natural calamities. Coastal flooding becoming more common and people from those areas are expected to flock to certain areas and cities. Population pressure in those cities would grow as rural communities are increasingly less viable for many other reasons, mainly related to rural economy. Many coastal areas in our country and many others parts of the World would be lost forever and beyond reconstruction due to rising sea level and other threats arising due to man-made climate change.
In many other not-so-democratic countries such public frustration and anger are being suppressed but sometimes expressed in form of civil unrest and distrust on its government and political system. Many big corporations are now forced to acknowledge not only ecological and but also political limitations of its core corporate mantra of profit maximization for its shareholders.
Latest data available (2017) suggest that an average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the world is 2.432. Even though TFR has continued to fall since 1970s, the doubling time for total human population in the world grew increasingly shorter as mentioned earlier. Traditionally the debate of over population was limited among few developing countries with very high population like China and India. Later many other countries with “unacceptably” high population growth like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia etc. came into focus. Many Americans routinely complain about over population, mainly in bigger cities, even though American population growth rate declined for last 80 years.
We all probably know about the famous one child policy in China. It was introduced in 1979 and continues as late as October 2015. Now we are becoming increasingly aware about the atrocities and issues associated with that policy from various western news channels as China is gaining more global attention. Many foreign nationals, including Americans, adopted Chinese children. They grew up abroad mostly in western democracies. These Chinese born adults now started asking inconvenient questions and also searching for answers as shown in the documentary, One Child Nation. Now China has the worst by birth sex ratio in the world with 115 boys born for each 100 girls, comfortably beating India, which got global attention for girl child killing and selective abortion.
Few other countries like India also tried various autocratic means including forced sterilization to slow down population growth rate. Sometimes it's targeted against specific race or religion. Female infanticide or selective girl child killing is also being used in countries like India, but not as a government policy.
Lack of understanding and/or willingness to introduce sex education among teens, availability and affordability to get safe abortion and other family planning methods are also influenced by growing religious fundamentalism and political exploitation of religion by a section of policy makers in many countries. Just by allowing women to get education; delaying marriages; allowing women to have a say in the decision of marriage, family planning, and pregnancy would alleviate poverty and control population growth not just for that particular family but eventually for the country. Melinda Gates of Gates Foundation recently quoted as saying, “family planning is crucial anywhere, in any community around the world, because if a woman can decide if and when to have a child, she’s going to be healthier and her child is going to be healthier.” That issue is also very closely related to poverty and social mobility for the members of the family.
There seems to be a fierce resistance among so many leaders in various countries, who are overwhelmingly men and often don’t want to give up control of a woman’s fertility and of their own wives’ fertility, besides denying girls the right to get education, mainly sex education, which is still a taboo in many societies around the world. Oddly enough, USA is not that unfamiliar with such resistance either.
Growing influence of religion in both public education and in public policy seem to influence, if not create, many such issues that polarize people in many countries around the world. Even in the U.S., which spends the most in education and research, the gap between what scientists/experts believe vs what general public believe is growing. About 59 percent of general American public view “growing world population will be a major problem” while 86 percent of American scientists the same way. The gap is wider in issues like evolution, abortion, and even GMO. Political polarization among the two main political parties in the U.S. on that single issue of abortion is also growing.
There was a famous court battle, known as Scopes Trial, around 1925. It was about teaching evolution as opposed to religious dogma of "intelligent design" or creationism in schools. That incident shook the country. As a result, the influence of religion in American education system and politics started a steady decline. Since that time American society and politics started becoming more fact and science minded. USA became political, military, and economic superpower. Then it changed again. It all seems to have started around 1976 with deeply religious Ronald Reagan. Both the parties, including progressive Democrat Jimmy Carter, started embracing Christian fundamentalism, albeit much less than their Republican colleagues like Reagan. That change also correlates with worsening sociopolitical polarization, growing income and wealth inequality, growing public frustration on increasingly dysfunctional American political system and capitalism.
In the meantime, growing population of older people initially in more developed countries and then in other less affluent developing countries became a more serious issue as medical science keep on improving prolonging our lives. The rate far outpaced our ability and/or desire to restrict our family size and adopt family planning measures. That’s particularly crucial among poorer and less educated population in almost every country, including the U.S.
Despite of its huge influence, many of the fossil fuel companies are now facing a grim reality due to dwindling long term supply of its main revenue sources (i.e. fossil fuel itself); and duet to public awareness and resulting frustration, anger, and political backlash in many countries due to worsening climate crisis that even concerned scientists and most aggressive model of climate change failed to perceive. That frustration is more in western democracies that still have productive media, freedom of speech, and where people used to enjoy relatively less polluted lives with relatively less natural calamities. Many Western democracies, certainly the U.S. are increasingly facing many climate change induced natural calamities. Coastal flooding becoming more common and people from those areas are expected to flock to certain areas and cities. Population pressure in those cities would grow as rural communities are increasingly less viable for many other reasons, mainly related to rural economy. Many coastal areas in our country and many others parts of the World would be lost forever and beyond reconstruction due to rising sea level and other threats arising due to man-made climate change.
In many other not-so-democratic countries such public frustration and anger are being suppressed but sometimes expressed in form of civil unrest and distrust on its government and political system. Many big corporations are now forced to acknowledge not only ecological and but also political limitations of its core corporate mantra of profit maximization for its shareholders.
Latest data available (2017) suggest that an average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the world is 2.432. Even though TFR has continued to fall since 1970s, the doubling time for total human population in the world grew increasingly shorter as mentioned earlier. Traditionally the debate of over population was limited among few developing countries with very high population like China and India. Later many other countries with “unacceptably” high population growth like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia etc. came into focus. Many Americans routinely complain about over population, mainly in bigger cities, even though American population growth rate declined for last 80 years.
We all probably know about the famous one child policy in China. It was introduced in 1979 and continues as late as October 2015. Now we are becoming increasingly aware about the atrocities and issues associated with that policy from various western news channels as China is gaining more global attention. Many foreign nationals, including Americans, adopted Chinese children. They grew up abroad mostly in western democracies. These Chinese born adults now started asking inconvenient questions and also searching for answers as shown in the documentary, One Child Nation. Now China has the worst by birth sex ratio in the world with 115 boys born for each 100 girls, comfortably beating India, which got global attention for girl child killing and selective abortion.
Few other countries like India also tried various autocratic means including forced sterilization to slow down population growth rate. Sometimes it's targeted against specific race or religion. Female infanticide or selective girl child killing is also being used in countries like India, but not as a government policy.
Lack of understanding and/or willingness to introduce sex education among teens, availability and affordability to get safe abortion and other family planning methods are also influenced by growing religious fundamentalism and political exploitation of religion by a section of policy makers in many countries. Just by allowing women to get education; delaying marriages; allowing women to have a say in the decision of marriage, family planning, and pregnancy would alleviate poverty and control population growth not just for that particular family but eventually for the country. Melinda Gates of Gates Foundation recently quoted as saying, “family planning is crucial anywhere, in any community around the world, because if a woman can decide if and when to have a child, she’s going to be healthier and her child is going to be healthier.” That issue is also very closely related to poverty and social mobility for the members of the family.
There seems to be a fierce resistance among so many leaders in various countries, who are overwhelmingly men and often don’t want to give up control of a woman’s fertility and of their own wives’ fertility, besides denying girls the right to get education, mainly sex education, which is still a taboo in many societies around the world. Oddly enough, USA is not that unfamiliar with such resistance either.
Growing influence of religion in both public education and in public policy seem to influence, if not create, many such issues that polarize people in many countries around the world. Even in the U.S., which spends the most in education and research, the gap between what scientists/experts believe vs what general public believe is growing. About 59 percent of general American public view “growing world population will be a major problem” while 86 percent of American scientists the same way. The gap is wider in issues like evolution, abortion, and even GMO. Political polarization among the two main political parties in the U.S. on that single issue of abortion is also growing.
There was a famous court battle, known as Scopes Trial, around 1925. It was about teaching evolution as opposed to religious dogma of "intelligent design" or creationism in schools. That incident shook the country. As a result, the influence of religion in American education system and politics started a steady decline. Since that time American society and politics started becoming more fact and science minded. USA became political, military, and economic superpower. Then it changed again. It all seems to have started around 1976 with deeply religious Ronald Reagan. Both the parties, including progressive Democrat Jimmy Carter, started embracing Christian fundamentalism, albeit much less than their Republican colleagues like Reagan. That change also correlates with worsening sociopolitical polarization, growing income and wealth inequality, growing public frustration on increasingly dysfunctional American political system and capitalism.
In the meantime, growing population of older people initially in more developed countries and then in other less affluent developing countries became a more serious issue as medical science keep on improving prolonging our lives. The rate far outpaced our ability and/or desire to restrict our family size and adopt family planning measures. That’s particularly crucial among poorer and less educated population in almost every country, including the U.S.
About 11 percent of people in
the World are aged 65 and over, as of 2019. This percentage is expected to jump
to nearly 17 percent by 2050. By 2050, one in four persons,
i.e. 25 percent, living in Europe and Northern America could be aged 65 or
over. In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 or above
outnumbered children under five years of age globally. The number of persons
aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426
million in 2050.
Challenges arising due to this growing number of older people- taking care of them, providing them health care, ensuring financial stability for increasingly longer period of time after retirement that too with decreasing number of working age population, and other such issues- are posing enormous policy challenge for every Government in the world
Less developed countries are trying to absolve its duties, many people say, as they tend to force adult children to take care of their old parents and grandparents. Younger generation needs to accomplish the hard emotional and financial duties with declining income (as compared to their parents) and diminishing resources like (family) property and savings. India passed The Maintenance And Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act in 2007. The act legally requires children and grandchildren (but not minors) to maintain the health and wellness of an aging family member, where “maintenance” is defined as the provision for food, residence and medical attendance and treatment; and “senior citizen” as any person age sixty or older.
This message of controlling population is almost unheard of in most of developed countries in the western world. It was not much of a reality just few years ago that an American presidential hopeful would talk about population control in an open forum. This year we heard that too although that progressive and liberal politician been criticized to suggest population control as part of tackling climate change.
Temperate western countries, mainly in Europe, traditionally had less people for various reasons including limitation of natural resources, lack of biodiversity, lower fertility of land etc. As colonization spread across Europe, they got habituated to slave labor and almost free natural resources at the cost of other people from around the world. European colonization also affected natural or organic socio-political evolution in those colonies, many of which were having highly developed civilizations and prosperous economies with long distance sea trading culture without having any desire or need to establish colonies. That time we also did not have the knowledge that we have now. We did not know what burning fossil fuel would lead to, what type of pressure the planet faces for our growing addiction to more energy dependent affluent “western” lifestyle. Ecological limit of the planet was not known.
The core issue in most of the cases is our blind faith in “growth”- any kind of growth- be it growing household income; company profit; national GDP; number of members of an organization, religious, or political, or otherwise. It has become an addiction to growth based perception of development. Growth became the core mantra for corporations and governments alike. It tend to ignore the ecological limitations of “growth” and coerce us to think that shifting or outsourcing the consequences to distant nations and on people whom we don’t know or live with, would not affect us, as a society and as an individual. How wrong we are!
Challenges arising due to this growing number of older people- taking care of them, providing them health care, ensuring financial stability for increasingly longer period of time after retirement that too with decreasing number of working age population, and other such issues- are posing enormous policy challenge for every Government in the world
Less developed countries are trying to absolve its duties, many people say, as they tend to force adult children to take care of their old parents and grandparents. Younger generation needs to accomplish the hard emotional and financial duties with declining income (as compared to their parents) and diminishing resources like (family) property and savings. India passed The Maintenance And Welfare of Parents and Senior Citizens Act in 2007. The act legally requires children and grandchildren (but not minors) to maintain the health and wellness of an aging family member, where “maintenance” is defined as the provision for food, residence and medical attendance and treatment; and “senior citizen” as any person age sixty or older.
This message of controlling population is almost unheard of in most of developed countries in the western world. It was not much of a reality just few years ago that an American presidential hopeful would talk about population control in an open forum. This year we heard that too although that progressive and liberal politician been criticized to suggest population control as part of tackling climate change.
Temperate western countries, mainly in Europe, traditionally had less people for various reasons including limitation of natural resources, lack of biodiversity, lower fertility of land etc. As colonization spread across Europe, they got habituated to slave labor and almost free natural resources at the cost of other people from around the world. European colonization also affected natural or organic socio-political evolution in those colonies, many of which were having highly developed civilizations and prosperous economies with long distance sea trading culture without having any desire or need to establish colonies. That time we also did not have the knowledge that we have now. We did not know what burning fossil fuel would lead to, what type of pressure the planet faces for our growing addiction to more energy dependent affluent “western” lifestyle. Ecological limit of the planet was not known.
The core issue in most of the cases is our blind faith in “growth”- any kind of growth- be it growing household income; company profit; national GDP; number of members of an organization, religious, or political, or otherwise. It has become an addiction to growth based perception of development. Growth became the core mantra for corporations and governments alike. It tend to ignore the ecological limitations of “growth” and coerce us to think that shifting or outsourcing the consequences to distant nations and on people whom we don’t know or live with, would not affect us, as a society and as an individual. How wrong we are!
It’s high time to start asking serious questions
about what type of model of development we should have, to sustain this world
and our quality of life. It becomes more important for developing countries
like China, India, Brazil and so many more, where we almost constantly hear
about "development" and conflicts arising from it. We hear the
conservationists and global warming experts who tell us to consume less, create
less carbon footprints. On the other hand, we are constantly hearing many
economists and policy makers that we need “growth”, we need to spend more, and
consume more. From our childhood we had an impression that low or zero “growth”
is very bad.
There are few emerging alternative economic models that
recognize ecological limits of human development and emphasize socioeconomic
equality. Two alternative economic models pop up. The first one proposes a steady-state
economy: one that has stopped growing in
terms of GDP, but continues to improve quality of life. It’s maintained by an
ecologically sustainable rate of resource throughput and a steady state of
human population.
The second one is a sustainable de-growth
model that had been defined as “an
equitable down-scaling of production and consumption that increases human
well-being and enhances ecological conditions at the local and global level, in
the short and long term”. The paradigm is that human progress without economic
growth is possible. It has been shown repeatedly that GDP per capita does not
correlate with overall happiness above a certain level of satisfying people’s
basic needs. According to a recent research, earning
more than a threshold level does not translate into increasing overall
happiness and satisfaction of life, while may have negative impact on quality
of life.
It would be naive to think that developed countries around the world are or will remain immune to the consequences for climate change, high corruption, poor governance and failure of democracy in many, if not most, countries around the world. Desperation to leave poorer countries can never be addressed by building increasingly higher walls or tightening immigration laws or isolationist policies.
We surely can debate and reform our immigration policy but there can't be any confusion that it would be much better and sustainable for reasonably prosperous developed countries including the U.S. to enable those unfortunate people to stay in their own native countries by addressing the issues for which most of them are forced to leave or seek a better life aligned to their views, ambition, and ability or talent. It’s equally true for many people in the U.S. and other developed countries, who prefer to live in those tropical countries in the developing world. Ideally, we should have a border–less world and visa-less international travel. But to achieve that reality we, at least majority of us and our Governments, first need to believe and then establish a similar, if not the same, definition of truth and justice. That must not be based on some religious or political ideology but on science, fact, and logic.
By now we should get the clear message that we have to restrict first and then shrink human footprint if we, as a human race, like to continue human civilization in its present form in this planet for centuries to come. Sooner we understand and act the better.